The aim of this project is to analyze the appraisal of road traffic accident rate on Enugu – Onitsha Express Road.
The data on the number of recorded road traffic accident
rate on Enugu – Onitsha Express road from 1995 – 2002 was collected and
organized on quarters.
The trend equation was calculated from the date, which
follows linear trend with the trend values, the seasonal indexes for the
four seasons of the year was calculated.
Projection of the value and forecasting with the trend value equations and seasonal index was not left out.
Finally, some recommendation was made on the following observations and conclusions that drawn from the analysis.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.2 Background Of Information
1.3 Aims And Objectives
1.4 Scope And Limitation
2.1 Literature Review
3.1 Research Methodology
3.2 Method Of Data Collection
3.3 Problems Encountered
4.1 Approach To Time Series Analysis
4.2 Element Of Time Series
Secular t rend
4.3 Trend Analysis
4.4 Finding The Linear Trend By Least Squares Method
4.5 Measurement Of Seasonal Variation By Moving Average Method
4.6 Estimation Of Seasonal Variation By Least Squares Method
4.7 Adjustment Of Seasonal Variation Interpretation
4.8 Forecasting Forecast Values For 2007
4.9 Estimation Of Seasonal Index
5.1 Finding And Conclusion
According to Oxford Learners Dictionary accident is defined as
something that happens without a cause that can been seen at once,
usually something unfortunate and undesirable. This means that accident
can happen at anytime, anywhere and any moment. In most cases
accident result from carelessness or recklessness.
Road accident may be said to occur when many vehicles do not meet the
safety requirement of the traffic operation. Road accident have become
a major problem in the country, many people both old young have lost
their lives as a result of road accident.
The rate of accident in this state varies from time to
time and increase during the end of the year and decreases at the
beginning of the year and also the number of cars double for the fact
that during this period, the number of not or vehicle are more than
doubled, odes not mean that the roads becomes less safer. Why then is
it that the rate of road accident in Enugu – Onitsha Express Road is not
stable as other roads in the state?
The answer is that first, we lack sufficient collective will to put
an end once and for all, to the perils caused us by road accident.
Second, our understanding of the situation is low because of the
fragment nature of its occurrence (is not how many people or families
are affected at a time and this has made people to slow down, I don’t
care to behaviaour it). It does happen because we cannot predict its
period of occurrence.
If we have the good will, we should find the way, for we cannot
assume the number of accident rate are beyond a number that man could.
Solue, once they have been identified. Some people are non chalant
because they are not directly affected. Perhaps they are not divers or
carousers, that not withstanding they are affected somehow its effects
on the public migration are not cumulative another reason why we cannot
reduce the rate of accident in Enugu – Onitsha Express Road to its
lowest rate of occurrence is that from the point of view of the
government and financial cost of an integrated road transport system
represent one of one many cells on the national income there by a time
they forget about and road transport system. By this I mean that the
decision is essential government by consideration of a political nature.
In principle, the number of casualties on the road could be reduced
to any required level, provided there was sufficient investment of
economic and social effort that could minimize or reduce it.
In view of what has been said about appraisal of accident rate in
Enugu – Onitsha Express Road, it may be said to occur when many vehicle
do not meet the safety requirement of the traffic role as it can always
Road accident is normally a failure of the control system the
starting point in how to prevent accident along Enugu – Onitsha Express
Road should be understood. What is required of many vehicles?
There are factors that lead to road accident.
Unsafe Driver: Unsafe driver is a driver that drives under
the influence of alcohol or drugs feeling sleepy, carelessly
distracted, pot whole, driving with uncorrected vision or hearing.
Hazardous Driving Condition: Hazardous driving condition is
driving under stormy weather. Sleeping road surface, darkness, narrow
Unsafe Driving Practices: This is driving above the speed
limit, turning without signaling, following the car ahead too closely.
Unsafe condition with an automobile: Brakes failure,
unsafe steering gear, worn-out tires, over loading and driver without
light at night is also one of the major features of road accident is a
high proportion of severe multiple injuries, gotten. However motor
accident rate may constitute a growing problem in our society, perhaps
scrunching of traffic regulation equipment facilities shall be improved
1.2 BACKGROUND INFORMATION
In the past, in the time of our fore father the rate of
road accident was very small because they were uncivilized; there was
very few motor vehicles, good road etc.
In this modern time, there is hardly a day without
accident, go to road safety office, and see the number of people that is
being hospitalized, mainly the value of goods lost by Enugu – Onitsha
Express accident victims, not to talk of those that have lost their
limes because of accident that occur on this road.
At this juncture, one may ask at what season of the year
or month people normally have accident, and what factors influence the
road accident and how many people may be admitted into the hospital or
the value of crude deaths rate will it not increase from day to day on
this road in future.
Awareness of all these things may make the government to
know how much to budget for maintain of these road or maintenance of
road facilities, provision of emergency services and how best to control
road accident and suppress it to the lowest rate of occurring.
Nowadays, it appears that the tendency of accident occurring is greater than it was in the previous decades.
New invention is the main factors that attribute to it
many people are miss using it. Also illiteracy of the drivers. Lack of
vehicle maintenance, bad roads, one way traffic inexperience etc.
Against this background, I decided to carry out a study
on the value of accident rate in Enugu – Onitsha Express Road in order
to investigate some of the above maintained issues.
1.3 AIMS AND OBJECTIVES
The aims and objectives of this project is to carry out
statistical appraisal of accident rate in Enugu – Onitsha Express Road
for a period of eight years (1995 – 2002).
To ascertain the rate at which accident occur, whether
the accident rate has been increased as years go by or its varies from
month or being at decrease and at what season of the year do we have
higher rate of accident at Enugu – Onitsha Express Road.
Moreover, this project will help to predict the value of
road accident or number of the road accident in Enugu – Onitsha Express
Road that will occure in future will regard to the past records.
This scientific knowledge will help the government in
their planning and also on how best to control or reduce road accident
in Enugu – Onitsha Express Road to its minimum of occurrence in the
Finally, the recommendation made I this work will help
individuals to know the rate of accident in Enugu – Onitsha Express Road
so as not to be the next victim.