CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
Background of the study
Nigeria’s population and economic development are
linked to climate sensitive activities including rainfall. An
understanding of current and historical rainfall trends and variation
is inevitable to the country’s future economic and tourism development.
Rainfall is the most important natural factor that goes a long way
in determining a lot of things especially agricultural production in
Nigeria, especially in the southern part of Nigeria. The changes and
variability associated with rainfall and the pattern of extreme high or
low precipitation are very important for agriculture as well as the
economic development of the state. It is a well-known fact that the
pattern of rainfall is changing on both the global and the regional
scales due to global warming (Hulme et al, 1998, Kayano, 2008). As the
moves to encourage the agricultural sector in other toavoid food
scarcity continues to gain ground and acceptability, information on
rainfall variability is of essence for the design of water supply and
supplemental agricultural irrigation schemes and the evaluation of
alternative cropping and of soil water management plans. Much as long
rainfall records are mostly available in many countries, little use is
made of this information because of the unpredicted nature of the
records.(Mina and Sayedul, 2012).
It is important to state that rainfall of Nigeria and West Africa
in generally is influenced by the dynamics of continental air mass and
maritime air mass which meet along a slanting surface called
Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD) (Odekunle, 2004). Varying degrees of
convective activity and precipitation takes place at the south of ITD
while little or no cloud development or precipitation occur in the
northern part of ITD (Ilesanmi, 1972).
Statement of the general problem
The current pattern of rainfall in Cross River
State has been a source of concern to the inhabitants, especially those
who rely on it for their economic and tourist activities. Therefore,
it is on this basis that this study seeks to examine the trend of
rainfall in Calabar state with the view to ascertain the feasibility of
government’s effort towards improved agriculture; to enhance food
security in the state.
Significance of the study
This study would be of help to tourists in
planning the time of their visits. This study would equally be of help
to the policy makers of Cross River state, agriculturists and
researchers who are interested in the rainfall pattern of Cross River
state.
Objectives of the study
- To study the pattern of rainfall in calabar municipality.
- To know if rainfall pattern affects tourism and economic development.
Scope of the study
This study is limited to the time series analysis on rainfall pattern in Calabar municipality from 2002-2014
Research hypothesis
H0: Rainfall pattern does not affect the tourism and economic development of Calabar
H1: Rainfall pattern affects the tourism and economic development of Calabar
Definition of terms
- TREND: a general direction in which a situation is changing or developing.
- VARIABILITY: the fact that something is likely to change
- TOURISM: the business activity connected
with providing accommodation, services and entertainment for people who
are visiting a place for pleasure.
- POLICY: a plan or action agreed or chosen by a political party, business or a government.
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