FORECAST OF EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINANTS IN NIGERIA
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It has been noted that the Nigeria economy has
gone through series of transformation since independence. Her exchange
rate determination has taken various shapes from administratively
deformed rate to a market determined rate. These have also be
associated with deficient problems. As a result of these problems,
the government through the help of the CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria)
tries to regulate the exchange rate system. The adoption of Structural
Adjustment Programme (SAP), where main element was Second-tier Foreign
The hypotheses of this study indicate that there is a significant
positive relationship between Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, External
Reserve and Inflation and there is a negative relationship between
exchange rate, Gross Domestic Product and Balance of Payment. To
validate this hypothesis data gotten from secondary sources were
estimated and analyzed among the Ordinary Least Square Method (OLS) and
Cochrane-Orcutt Method. The independent variables used were balance
of payment, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, External Reserve and
Inflation, while the dependable variable was exchange rate. There was
also a drive towards forecasting exchange rate.
The empirical analysis showed that about 87% of the mean value of
the exchange rate is explained by the explanatory variables. This
shows that the estimated model regression line is a good fit and the
result of the null hypothesis for the forecast was less than the figure
of the “t” take, which means it forecast well.
FORECAST OF EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINANTS IN NIGERIA
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