INDEX NUMBER ANALYSIS ON THE PRICE OF PETROLEUM ON THE PRICE OF FOOD ITEMS (1999-2013)
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Background of the study
The effect of prices of petroleum products on food items and the
economy of Nigeria cannot be over emphasized.Petroleum products range
from aviation fuel to kerosene just to mention a few, this is solely
due to the lack of diversification of the economy. 85% of Nigeria gross
domestic product (GDP) is being accounted for by the petroleum sector
(Mahmud 2009). Before the discovery of crude oil in the early 70’s,
agriculture was the main driver of the economy which has helped in the
country’s development in these periods, there was hardly any incident to
hike of products and services. The price stability of food items is of
utmost importance to every nation that wants to witness growth; this
is because it is only a healthy workforce that can give out their best
in terms of work and productivity. Overtime there may have been some
arguments about the relationship between petroleum prices and price
index of food items. Some school of thought opined that prices of
petroleum prices has nothing to do with prices of food items,
questioning the agricultural stakeholders and traders for massive
exploitation during price instability of petroleum products while the
other school of thoughts are of the opinion that petroleum products does
affect the prices of food items. Petroleum is believed to have an
enormous bad wagon effect on the economy and even agricultural products
this normally occurs in the economies of the West Africa sub-region
which isn’t often diversified. For any oil producing nation that
doesn’t want to know poverty of its masses then they must have to
diversify their economy so as to prevent crises in one sector of the
economy spilling over to the other sectors.
Food items are an essential commodity for a healthy nation, the
supply of food to any nation must be done without anyform of compromise
as anything less than an adequate planning will lead to shortage in
food supply which could affect the economy of the nation. Every
meaningful government should always ensure that adequate food supply
remains untouched as such shouldn’t be affected by either petroleum
Statement of the general problem
The fluctuation of agricultural food items in Nigeria has been a
concern for some time now which is not good for a growing economy like
ours. A nation that plays with its agricultural sector is a nation that
would encounter shortage of food supply which may not pan out for a
populous country like Nigeria. The problem of hike of food items each
time there is a little change in the prices of petroleum items has led
us to this study.
Significance of the study
This study would be useful to policy makers, researchers on the
economy of the nation and above all the Nigerian government in tackling
food scarcity in Nigeria thereby ensuring food security in Nigeria.
Aims and objectives of the study
- This study seeks to study the price fluctuation of both
petroleum products and food items with a view to knowing if petroleum
price changes affects or influences a corresponding change in prices of
food items in Nigeria.
- This study also seeks to examine the nature of relationship
that exists between petroleum prices and prices of food items in
- This study is also intended to predicting the effect of petroleum and food item prices on the economy of the nation.
- To proffer solutions of ensuring food security in Nigeria.
- Is there a relationship between the prices of petroleum prices and the prices of food items?
- What nature of relationship exists between petroleum and food items prices?
- What are the ways one can ensure food security in Nigeria.
- Do the prices of petroleum prices and prices of food items affect the economy?
H0: there is no significant relationship between the prices of petroleum products and the prices of food items.
H1: there is a significant relationship between the prices of petroleum products and the prices of food items.
Scope of the study
This study is on the analysis on the prices of petroleum on the price of the food items from 1999-2013.
Limitations of the study
Financial constraint- Insufficient fund tends to
impede the efficiency of the researcher in sourcing for the relevant
materials, literature or information and in the process of data
Time constraint- The researcher will
simultaneously engage in this study with other academic work. This
consequently will cut down on the time devoted for the research work.
Definition of terms
- Petroleum: Crude oil, commonly known as
petroleum, is a liquid found within the Earth comprised of
hydrocarbons, organic compounds and small amounts of metal. While
hydrocarbons are usually the primary component of crude oil, their
composition can vary from 50%-97% depending on the type of crude oil and
how it is extracted.
- Economy: economy encompasses all
activity related to production, consumption and trade of goods and
services in an area. The economy applies to everyone from individuals to
entities such as corporations and governments. The economy of a
particular region or country is governed by its culture, laws, history,
and geography, among other factors, and it evolves due to necessity.
Adebimpe, B. (2004), “The Impact of Oil on Nigeria‟s Economic
Policy Formulation” Paper presented at the Conference on Nigeria:
Maximizing pro-poor growth; regenerating the Socio-economic Database.
16th/17th June, 2004.
Ajetomobi, J. O., Ayanwale, B. A. and S. O. Binuomote (2007)
Economic effect of Developments Aid in Nigeria: A Cointegration
Analysis. Pakistan Journal of Social Sciences 4(1) 1992- 1997.
Akpan, E. O. (2009) “Oil Price Shocks and Nigeria‟s Macro
Economy” Paper presented at CSAE Conference, Oxford University, Oxford,
UK. 21st - 23rd March, 2009.
Akpan, E. O. (2009) “Oil Resource Management and Food Insecurity
in Nigeria.Department of Economics, University of Ibadan, Nigeria.
Binuomote, S. O., Ajetomobi, J. O. and Adeboje, M.O: Wheat
Imports, production and food security in Nigeria: An application of
cointegration and error correction modelling (1970-2006). Science
Focus, 15(3) 2010 pp 422-428.
Charemza, W. W. and Deadman, D. F. (1992) New Directions in
Econometric Practise. Edward Elgar Publishing Limited. England and USA.
Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J (1987). “Cointegration and error
correction: Representation, estimation and testing.” Econometrica
Hall, S. G. (1986): “An Application of the Grange and Engle Two
Step Estimation procedure to United Kingdom Aggregate wage Data.”
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 48(3):229-239. Hemphill, W.
L. (1974) “The effects of foreign exchange receipts on imports of less
developed countries”. IMF papers, Vol. 27:637 – 677.
Hendry, D. F. (1986): “Econometric Modelling With Cointegrated
Variables: AN Overview. “Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Hendry, D.F. and Ericsson N. R. (1991) “Modelling the Demand for
Narrow Money in the United Kingdom and the United States.” European
Economic Review 35(4):833-886.
INDEX NUMBER ANALYSIS ON THE PRICE OF PETROLEUM ON THE PRICE OF FOOD ITEMS (1999-2013)
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