1.0 YEARLY SALES OF PETROLEUM
The search of oil in Nigeria started as
early as 1937, but the discovery was not until 1956. The sole of
petroleum products began in December 1957, managed by a consortium of
Royal Dutch Shell and British Petroleum BP Now known as Shell Petroleum
Development Company SPDC. G.A, Aga (1993) stated that Nigeria was the
second oil producing nation in Africa after Libya and sixth in the
In May 1971, the Nigeria
National Oil Company was established under the company and Allied matter
Act of 1958 as applicable then. NNOC was the government Agency Mandated
by law to engage in all phases of oil production and sales, NNOC was
later in 1977 amalgamated into a full flex ministry of petroleum to form
the Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), which is in
partnership with several oil company from different countries operating
in Nigeria. Before October 1965, Nigeria Crude Oil was refined overseas
and all the processed oil needs were imported. The first refinery plant
came into operation in 1965 located at Alesa Eleme near Port-Harcourt.
Later Warri and Kaduna Petro-chemical refineries were established in
1978 and 1980 respectively. Similarly, Pipeline and Products Marketing
Company Ltd (PPMC) Enugu Depot was commissioned in 25 August 1975 by the
then military Governor of the old Anambra State; Colonel D.S. Abubakar.
The last was the second refinery in Port-Harcourt. It is however worthy
to note that NNPC has several subsidiary company e.g. Pipeline and
Product Marketing Company (PPMC).
1.1 Discovery of Crude Oil in Nigeria
Oil was discovered in Nigeria in 1956 at
Oloibiri in the Niger Delta after half a century of exploration. The
discovery was made by Shell-BP, at the time the sole concessionaire.
Nigeria joined the ranks of oil producers in 1958 when its first oil
field came on stream producing 5,100 bpd. After 1960, exploration rights
in onshore and offshore areas adjoining the Niger Delta were extended
to other foreign companies. In 1965 the EA field was discovered by Shell
in shallow water southeast of Warri.
In 1970, the end of the
Biafran war coincided with the rise in the world oil price, and Nigeria
was able to reap instant riches from its oil production. Nigeria joined
the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1971 and
established the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) in 1977; a
state owned and controlled company which is a major player in both the
upstream and downstream sectors [Blair1976, pp. 98-120]. Following the
discovery of crude oil by Shell D’Arcy Petroleum, pioneer production
began in 1958 from the company’s oil field in Oloibiri in the Eastern
Niger Delta. By the late sixties and early seventies, Nigeria had
attained a production level of over 2 million barrels of crude oil a
day. Although production figures dropped in the eighties due to economic
slump, 2004 saw a total rejuvenation of oil production to a record
level of 2.5 million barrels per day. Current development strategies are
aimed at increasing production to 4million barrels per day by the year
2010. Petroleum production and export play a dominant role in Nigeria's
economy and account for about 90 % of her gross earnings.
This dominant role has
pushed agriculture, the traditional mainstay of the economy, from the
early fifties and sixties, to the background. While the discovery of oil
in the eastern and mid-western regions of the Niger Delta pleased
hopeful Nigerians, giving them an early indication soon after
independent economic development was within reach, at the same time it
signaled a danger of grave consequence: oil revenues fueled already
existing ethnic and political tension and actually "burned" the country.
This tension reached its peak with the civil war that lasted from 1967
to 1970. As the war commenced, the literature reflected the hostility,
the impact, and fate of the oil industry. Nigeria survived the war, and
was able to recover mainly of the huge revenues from oil in the 1970s.
For some three years an oil boom followed, and the country was awash
Indeed, there was money
for virtually all the items in its developmental plan. The literature
of the postwar years shifted to the analysis of the world oil boom and
bust, collectively known as the "oil shock." Starting in 1973 the world
experienced an oil shock that rippled through Nigeria until the mid -
1980s. This oil shock was initially positive for the country, but with
mismanagement and military rule, it became all economic disaster. The
larger middle class produced by the oil boom of the 1970s gradually
became disenchanted in the 1980s, and rebellious in the 1990s. The
enormous impact of the oil shock could not escape scholarly attention.
For almost twenty years (1970s 1990s), the virtual obsession was to
analyze the consequences of oil on Nigeria, using different models and
theories. A set of radical-oriented writers was concerned with the
nationalization that took place during the oil shock as well as the
linkages between oil and an activist foreign policy.
Regarding the latter, the emphasis was
on OPEC, Nigeria's strategic alliance formation within Africa, the
vigorous efforts to establish the Economic Community of West African
States (ECOWAS), and the country's attempts to use oil as a political
weapon, especially in the liberation of South Africa from apartheid. If
many had hoped that oil would turn Nigeria into an industrial power and a
prosperous country based on a large middle class, they were to be
disappointed when a formally rich country became a debtor nation by the
1980s. The suddenness of the economic difficulties of the 1980s "bust
years" had an adverse effect on class relations and the oil workers who
understood the dynamics of the industry. As if to capture the labor
crisis, writings on oil workers during this period covered many
interrelated issues, notably working conditions, strikes, and state
labor relations. To be sure, labor issues were not new in the 1980s,
since the left-oriented scholars had made a point of exposing labor
relations in the colonial era. What was new after 1980 was the focus on
oil workers, unions, and class conflict [OPEC annual report 1983].
1.2 The Performance of Oil Sector in Nigeria
The Nigerian oil sector can be
categorized into three main sub-sectors, namely, upstream, downstream
and gas. The most problematic over the years has been the downstream
sector, which is the distribution arm and connection with final
consumers of refined petroleum products in the domestic economy. The
incessant crisis in supply of products culminated in the decision by
Government in 2003 to deregulate the downstream sub-sector. However, the
manner of its implementation has been controversial because it ignores
the economic realities in Nigeria.
Oil production by the joint venture (JV)
companies accounts for about 95 % of Nigeria’s crude oil production.
Shell, which operates the largest joint venture in Nigeria, with 55 %
Government interest (through the Nigerian National Petroleum
Corporation, NNPC), produces about 50 % of Nigeria’s crude oil. Exxon
Mobil, Chevron Texaco, ENI/Agip and TotalfinaElf operate the other JV’s,
in which the NNPC has 60 % stake. The over-dependence on oil has
created vulnerability to the vagaries of the international market, as
observed in the preceding section that show the contribution of oil to
some macro-economic variables. In particular, the place of oil in the
mind of the average Nigerian has become more profound since the
deregulation of the downstream segment of the Nigerian oil industry in
2003. The contradiction is more glaring now with the recent rise in
crude oil prices at the global markets, which meant more external
earnings for Nigeria, but also increased the expense burden on imported
refined petroleum products! It is such contradictions that make the
Nigerian economy appear strange at times, as policies seem to ignore
what appears obvious to do. As such, policies designed to address the
deficiencies and defects in the structure end up being poorly
articulated and/or implemented because of regional, political or
rent-seeking selfish interests. Obviously, it is the same rent-seekers
that continually sabotage the reinvigoration of the domestic refineries,
making Nigeria to depend on importation ofrefined products to meet the
domestic need. At present, Nigeria has four refineries, with a combined
installed refining capacity of 445,000 barrels per day (bpd). These four
1. The first Port
Harcourt Refinery was commissioned in 1965 with an installed capacity of
35,000 bpd and later expanded to 60,000 bpd.
2. The Warri Refinery
was commissioned in 1978 with an installed refining capacity 100,000
bpd, and upgraded to 125,000 bpd in 1986.
3. The Kaduna
Refinery was commissioned in 1980 with an installed refining capacity of
100,000 bpd, and upgraded to 110,000 bpd in 1986.
4. The second Port
Harcourt Refinery was commissioned in1989 with 150,000 bpd processing
capacity, and designed to fulfil the dual role of supplying the domestic
market and exporting its surplus. The combined capacities of these
refineries exceed the domestic consumption of refined products, chief of
which is premium motor spirit (gasoline), whose demand is estimated at
33 million litres daily. The refineries are however, operating far below
their installed capacities, as they were more or less abandoned during
the military era, skipping the routine and mandatory turnaround
maintenance that made products shortages that gave strength to the
argument for deregulation of the downstream oil subsector in Nigeria.
The monetization of oil revenue has been a major factor in liquidity
management in Nigeria. Measuring liquidity as the narrow and broad money
definitions by the CBN, the early 1990s saw increases that were
dampened by 1995 up until the civilian administration came on board in
1999. The new Government maintained disciplined fiscal operations for
about one year and thereafter, the floodgates were opened. Since then,
the CBN has been battling to keep liquidity in check, in order to ensure
that it does not create adverse effects on the three key macroeconomic
prices (i.e., interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate).
The greatest challenge is when Nigeria
generates more revenue from crude oil sales than it budgeted, like now.
Such excesses have always been monetized, creating market distortions
and inflationary pressure [Biodun Adedipe 2004]. The same argument goes
for deficit fiscal operations in comparison to the GDP. The pattern of
this ratio indicates the optimism that accompanies increase in oil
revenue and makes Government to engage in frivolous spending or
unnecessary projects. Deficit spending invariably makes Government
resort to borrowing from the Central Bank through the instrument of Ways
and Means Advances, which later convert into shortterm debt instruments
that are quite expensive to service at market rates. At this point,
there is sufficient ground to examine how economic policy formulation
has been impacted or induced by petroleum oil in Nigeria. As much as
possible, major economic policies since Nigeria gained political
independence would be examined vis-а-vis the state of the oil sector.
This should provide adequate basis for making a few specific
recommendations on how to reduce the dependency. Importation inevitable,
Importation not withstanding, there have been persistent product.
1.3 NIGERIAN NATIONAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION (ITS ROLE IN SALE OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS)
The NNPC‟s role in Oil Industry is so
much that it cannot handled it alone. This is the reason for the
establishment of subsidiary company like pipeline and Products Marketing
Company Ltd (PPMC). The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation manages
the affairs of the oil industry in Nigeria, while the PPMC under the
corporation is in charge of sales of petroleum products. Government
policy on oil matter such sales is been conveyed by the Petroleum
Products Price Regulatory Agency (PPPRA) currently headed by Alhaji
Gbalamosi. NNPC therefore, works in conjunction with PPPRA to implement
government policy such as prices of petroleum products. Nigerian
National Petroleum Corporation carries out its function as such in both
local and international.
1.4.1 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
- The aim of this project work is to forecast for Sales of petroleum
- 2. The specific objectives are to;
- *Test the stationarity of the data.
- *Fitting of trend
- *Fit an appropriate model to the data.
- *Use selected model for forecasting.
1.4.2 DISCRIPTION OF DATA
This data used in this project is a
secondary data and it was collected from sales department of Balewa
fuel station Oshogbo, Osun State. The data involved the amount entry per
year from 1988-2011.
CONCLUSION OF CHAPTER ONE
This chapter discussed the yearly sales
of petroleum in Oshogbo, discovery of crude oil in Nigeria and the aim
and objective of the study and the description of the data.