TABLE OF CONTENS
TITLE PAGE
Title
Page
i
Certification ii
Dedication iii
Acknowledgement iv
Table
of Content v
List
of Tables viii
Abstract
xi
CHAPTER
ONE: ITRODUCTION
1.1 Background
to the study 1
1.2 Statement
of Research Problem 5
1.3 Objectives
of Study 7
1.4 Statement
of Hypotheses 8
1.5 Scope
and Limitations of Study 9
1.6 Significance
of the Study 10
1.7 Definition
of Basic Terms 11
References 13
CHAPTER
TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW/THEORITICAL FRAMEWORK
2.1 Introduction 14
2.2 An
overview of voter participatory behaviour in the electoral
process worldwide 14
2.3 Why
voter turnout varies 20
2.4 Voter
turnout: The Nigerian experience 27
2.5 A
tabular representation of voter’ political behaviour
across the world 35
2.6 Theoretical
Framework 40
References 43
CHAPTER
THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Research
Design 47
3.2 Population
of Study 47
3.3 Sample
Size / Sampling Technique 48
3.5 Research
Instrument: Questionnaire/Interview 50
3.6 Validity
and Reliability of Instrument 50
3.7 Source
of Data Collection 51
3.8 Techniques
of Data Analysis 51
CHAPTER
FOUR: DATA PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATION
4.1 Introduction 54
4.2 Data
Presentation 54
4.3 Test
of Hypotheses 73
4.4 Interview
Analysis 84
CHAPTER
FIVE: FINDINGS, CONLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Introduction 87
5.2 Summary
and Discussions of findings 87
5.3 Recommendations 91
5.4 Conclusions 97
Bibliography 98
Appendix A: Questionnaires 104
Appendix B: Interview Schedule (Guide) 107
Appendix C: Statistical 109
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE No: Title Page
2.1 Voter Turnout Worldwide from
1945 to June 2006 35
2.2 National Voter Turnout in
Federal Elections from
1960 to 2010 36
2.3 Voter Data Turnout for South
Afr ica from 1994 to 2009 38
2.4 Voter Data Turnout for
Nigerian Elections
(Parliamentary- 1959 to 2011) 39
2.5 Presidential Elections- 1999
to 2011 39
3.1 Edo State: Population and
Sample Size by Senatorial
Districts and Local
Government Areas 49
4.2.1 Distribution of Respondents by
Gender 55
4.2.2 Distribution of Respondents by
Age Group 55
4.2.3 Distribution of Respondents by
Educational Level 56
4.2.4 Distribution of respondents by
Marital Status 56
4.2.5 Distribution of Respondents by
occupation 57
4.2.6 Are Elections Important in
Nigeria 57
4.2.7 Registered as a Voter 58
4.2.8 Mobilized to Register 58
4.2.9 By whom 59
4.2.10 Ever Voted at any Elections 59
4.2.11 Which Election 60
4.2.12 What was your experience 60
4.2.13 Why not 61
4.2.14 Mobilized to vote 62
4.2.15 By whom 62
4.2.16 Electoral Process violent prone and
insecure 63
4.2.17 Many Nigerians do not vote for fear
of violence 63
4.2.18 INEC capable of delivering free and
fair election 64
4.2.19 If yes, why do you think so 64
4.2.20 If no, why do you think so 65
4.2.21 Vote does not count because of
manipulation (fraud)
By Electoral Officials 65
4.2.22 The Registration and Voting
Processes in Nigeria is
very cumbersome,
therefore it discourages many
Nigerians from voting 66
4.2.23 If yes, how can the system improve 67
4.2.24 Under Professor Jega INEC is
gradually regaining the
Confidence of Nigerians
67
4.2.25 The Nigerian Political Officials
are fulfilling Electoral
Promises above average 68
4.2.26 Hijack of the Political office by
Godfathers and
non-fulfillment
Of Electoral promises discourages voting 68
4.2.27 Sufficient knowledge of the
Manifestoes of any Political Party 69
4.2.28 If yes, which one 69
4.2.29 INEC/Political Parties and Voter
Education,
Sensitization/Mobilization
70
4.2.30 Long hours/Tedious Registration and
Voting Processes
Hinders Voters’
participation 71
4.2.31 Why registered Voters’ refused to
vote on Election Day 71
4.2.32 Encouraging people to vote 72
ABSTRACT
This
study inquires into, and surveys opinion of Nigerians on some of the factors
that influence low voters’ participation and apathy in the Nigerian electoral
process. This study made use of data elicited from respondents’ of the three
Senatorial Districts of Edo State, Nigeria. The exercise was undertaken against
the backdrop of common desire of Nigerians for the attainment of credibility in
the country’s electoral process, which would facilitate the consolidation of
democracy obtained by legitimacy. The subject of discussion has been if the
political behaviour and susceptibility of the Nigerian electorates are
supportive or otherwise in relation to the identified factors impacting on the
credibility of the electoral process in Nigeria.
The
stratified random sampling technique was utilized to select the respondents’ or
sample of 1,200 Nigerians, from Edo South, Edo North, and Edo Central
Senatorial Districts of Edo State. The structured questionnaire and in-depth
interview designed to elicit appropriate and adequate responses on voters’
participatory behaviour in the electoral process, were the measurement
instruments utilized. The data gathered were analyzed with the aid of simple
percentage, and the Chi-Square and Yule’s Q to test and determine the degree of
association intrinsic in the stated hypotheses. Evidence from the study’s
results reveal that: the married respondents’ were more likely than their
counterparts who are single to have the opinion that voter participation in the
electoral process is inhibited by electoral violence and insecurity; the
respondents’ who fall within the age bracket of 40 years and above were less
likely than their counterparts who fall within the age bracket of below 40
years to have the opinion that the electoral process as conducted by the INEC
is credible; the respondents’ who are public servants were more likely than
their counterparts who fall within the business and other category to have the
opinion that political candidates and parties are failing in their duty to
fulfill electoral promises to the electorates in Nigeria; the respondents’ with
tertiary education were less likely than their counterparts with secondary
education/less to have the opinion that the INEC/Political Parties are
sufficiently educating the electorates on the electoral process in Nigeria; and
the male respondents’ were less likely than their female counterparts to have
the opinion that long hours/tedious registration and voting processes hinders
voters’ participation in the electoral process in Nigeria. At the end of the
study, some policy advice or recommendations were made, these include:
Ø The
need for the INEC to conduct transparent and credible elections, improve
voters’ registration process, educate voters’ sufficiently, etc.
Ø The
need for the Political Parties and Politicians to ensure internal party
democracy, organizes political rallies well, provide responsible
representation, fulfill electoral promise made during the campaign, etc.
Ø The need for the government to provide support
to the INEC, provide adequate protection for voters’, ensure the independence
of the INEC, etc.
Ø The
need for the electorates to make the right choice, resist the temptation to
sell votes, makes necessary sacrifices for political development and nation
building, etc.
Thus,
the achievement of credibility, fairness and effective voters’ participation in
the electoral process, would require the collaboration of all relevant
stakeholders in the Nigeria polity.
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUN
TO THE STUDY
In
liberal democratic theory, an election is a viable mechanism for consummating
representative government and voting is the main form of political
participation in democratic societies; the study of voting behavior is a highly
specialized sub-field in political and social science. There is no gainsaying
that credible elections constitute a major factor in democracy, democratization
and good governance globally. Elections in democracies help to promote
representation of popular will and to secure legitimacy of the political
system. However, there is an indicative evidence of the decline in voter
electoral participation- the lack of psychological involvement in public
affairs, emotional detachment from civic obligations, and a somewhat reserved
attitude towards political activity even at the global level. It is imperative
therefore, to understand the sources and character of political abstention.
Voter electoral behaviour, a subset of political behaviour, has thus emerged as
a major problem in mature and emerging democracies, settled and volatile
societies, large and thriving economies, as well as small and large ones.
Why
do people vote? Why do they not vote? This is a pertinent question; there has
been much concern in the past few years that the citizens are disengaging from
the political process, as shown by the continuing decline in voter turnout at
all levels of elections. This leads to serious questions of legitimacy. If
fewer than half of all eligible citizens vote and a winning candidate receive a
little bit above 50% of the vote, what can we say about mandates and about the
power to govern? Are non-voters completely disengaged, or simply engaged in
other kinds of political activities that they find more satisfying and more
likely to affect their lives?
Voter participatory behaviour impacts upon the
electoral process and its outcome. Any serious effort at electoral reforms to
bring about free, fair and credible elections must take into account the
challenges, especially of voter declining participation in the electoral
process. Thus, it became imperative to do a study on the nature, causes,
dimensions and consequences of declining voter participatory behaviour, with a
view to being adequately informed in designing future strategies to tackle its
challenges in the Nigerian context. In a country trying to consolidate
democracy after a long history of authoritarian military rule, strategies for
mobilizing people for popular participation and effective engagement in the
electoral process have to be well conceptualized and carefully designed. In
doing this, peoples’ perceptions and attitudes have to be studied, analyzed,
understood and taken into consideration.
In any case, liberal democracy is in crisis in many countries, developed
and developing (Adejumobi 2002).
In the developed countries the level of
citizen participation in the electoral process is dwindling, largely because
real choice is limited and the people feel a sense of powerlessness rather than
satisfaction. In developing countries, especially in Africa, elections are
riddled with tension, conflicts, crises and fraud such that it is difficult to
use them as a barometer of the peoples’ choice. Hence, the euphoria of the
second wave of democratization in Africa is fast receding. Yesterday’s icons
who led civil society in the struggles for democratic renewal have been
transformed into the images of those against whom they fought. They have
assumed dictatorial postures; they manipulate elections and tend towards
sit-tight regimes (Adejumobi 2000).
Nigeria is in the league of less successful
countries in the area of election management and outcomes: the electoral rules
are either unclear, ever changing, or easily subverted; the electoral body is
structurally weak and perennially ineffective; the political actors and
agencies are like gladiators in their conduct; while the people are often
powerless in an environment of political and electoral misdemeanor. Voting does
not amount to choosing in the Nigerian environment, as electoral choices are
made by political barons outside the environment of electoral norm, rules and
procedure. In such circumstances, ‘winners and losers have often been
determined before the contest, and voters merely go through the charade of
confirming choices already made’ Fawole (2005:15).
A
research initiated by the Independent National Electoral Commission and Friedrich–Ebert-Stiftung,
a German non-governmental organization, has identified government, INEC, the
media and politicians as largely responsible for the decline in voter
participation in Nigeria. This was made public by the Lead Researcher and Professor
of Political Science, Adigun Agbaje, during the public presentation of the
report entitled, “Voter Apathy and the 2011 Elections in Nigeria,” in Abuja,
the report was based on a nationally representative sample of 1,200 respondents
randomly selected across 12 states in the six geo-political zones within 27
local government areas and 103 wards. According to him, the research showed
that some of the respondents did not consider election as an important
assignment. In statistical terms, 49.4 per cent of respondents believe that
votes do not count in Nigeria, 28.7 per cent were discouraged by unfulfilled
promises by politicians while 14 per cent believed that there is corruption in
the system. About 7.9 per cent see violence during elections as an obstacle. The
report also showed that 57 per cent of the respondents rated the activities of
elected officials as “not satisfactory’, 32 per cent rated them as “fairly
satisfactory” while 11per cent rated them “satisfactory.” As a way out of
the problem, Agbaje recommended that, “Government should provide support to
INEC, fulfill electoral promises, engage in public enlightenment campaign,
ensure adequate security for voters, stop corruption, and enforce law and order
in the society and non-interference in the electoral process’’. “Politicians
should fulfill the electoral promise made during campaign, stop violence and do
or die politics, educate their supporters and organise peaceful political
rally, accepting election results without manipulation, avoiding bribery and corruption’’.
“The Press should assist in voter education; provide timely, accurate and
factual information, unbiased report, equal coverage and avoiding bribery and
corruption.” (Alechenu, 2012).
The electoral system of any given country plays a fundamental role
in sustaining and molding the political behavior of its citizens (Okolo, 2002).
The way election is conducted in a country determines to a great extent the
level of political culture, political participation and good governance in the
country. This obviously depends on the effectiveness and efficiency of a
county’s electoral system. Since democracy means rule by the people, people are
supposedly able to choose politicians they want to represent their interest in
the government through election; although history has it that it is usually
difficult to hold elections that are completely free and fair. In 2004, the
election that gave victory to former President George W. Bush of the United
States was alleged to have been marred by irregularities in the state of
Florida (Falana, 2009). But that is not to say that a country cannot experience
free, fair and credible election, at least the election that brought President
Obama of United States and late Prof. John Atta Mills of Ghana to power bear
testimonies to this. However, we must admit that conducting elections has been
the major bane confronting African countries. Studies on elections show that
transiting from one regime to another is often the problem in most African
state (Falana, 2009). The violence that occurs before, during and after
elections often brings about instability in the political system of most
African countries, with Nigeria inclusive. No doubt, election violence has been
one of the major banes of Nigeria’s democratic sustainability since 1964
general elections.
Several
factors that affect voter electoral behaviour have been highlighted in relevant
literature. Some of these include broad psychological factors and collective
memory of historical and contemporary events. Others are patterns of trust,
feelings of efficacy, political engagement and disengagement at individual,
group and regional levels (Fawole, 2005). In spite of the empirical evidence that the
global trend has been toward a decline in voter turnout, there is lack of
grounded and sustained scholarly attention to voter apathy in the context of
voter turnout in Nigeria despite the challenges plaguing the country’s
electoral system. Therefore, this study intends to fill this gap by undertaking
to study and find out the reason(s) for the decline of voters participation in
the electoral process.
1.2 STATEMENT
OF RESEARCH PROBLEM
Democracy
should be a celebration of
an involved public. Democracy requires an active citizenry because it is
through discussion, popular interest, and involvement in
politics that societal goals should be defined and carried out. Without public
involvement in the process, democracy lacks both its legitimacy and its guiding
force (Russell, 2002). In recent years voter participatory behavior has
reached worrying levels worldwide. Through the various generations of elections, declining voter participation, especially among the youth, has steadily
and increasingly become a major issue of concern that has been equally
affecting emerging democracy and consolidated ones.
Decreasing voter participation trends are a cause of concern because voter turnout is one of the main indicators
to measure the levels of democratic development and robustness of a country. Low voter turnout
can be related to and originated by many different factors closely related to
the democratic, economic and social development of a
country. The lack of genuine democracy in a country, peoples’ perceptions
of not being able to influence the political agenda and the lack of interest in
political life are all factors that can influence the levels of electoral
participation considerably.
Other factors may include:
·
low
confidence in the political candidates/parties due to
unfulfilled promises;
·
insufficient levels of accountability of
elected candidates to their constituents;
·
the lack of political maturity of parties;
·
violence during the electoral process; and
·
the low levels of “democratic culture” and
awareness of the electorate and
·
other stake-holders
Low voter turnout
could also be occasioned by flaws in the electoral process in two different
ways:
1)
Lack
of trust, confidence and credibility in the
electoral process and in the electoral institution responsible
for managing elections.
2)
Administrative
hindrance to access and participate in the voting process due to poor
management and poor electoral procedures.
Lack of confidence
in Electoral Management Bodies and electoral processes can depend on a
wide variety of factors, such as:
·
the inadequacy of an electoral system;
·
a biased election administration;
·
lack of transparency in decision making and electoral
procedures; and
·
the way in which electoral disputes are being
dealt with by the relevant body(ies).
Administrative hindrance due to
poor management and procedures can for example depend on factors
such as:
·
inadequate electoral procedures and voting
arrangements/facilities;
·
poor voter education and information;
Any of
these factors alone, or in combination, could significantly affect voter participation. After all, to participate, voters must have full trust in the
electoral process, in the way in which elections are administrated, in the
candidates/parties they are going to vote for, in the overall outcome of the
voting exercise, in the way in which those elected can be accountable to
deliver the commitments they took before being elected, and in the way in which
those who don’t
deliver can be voted out.
1.3 OBJECTIVES
OF STUDY
This study is
set to achieve the following goals:
-
To
examine the role and position of the electorate in the electoral process.
-
To
examine the cause or causes of low voter turnout during elections in Edo State.
-
To
examine the role of INEC and political elites as it affects voters’ electoral
participation.
-
To
suggest appropriate policy recommendation to improve voter political behaviour in
the electoral process to ensure legitimacy of elections through popular
participation.
1.4 FORMULATION
OF HYPOTHESES
Deriving from
the above, the hypothesis listed below in their null and alternate forms are
hereby proposed:-
HO: There
is no relationship between respondents’ marital status and their opinion about
electoral violence/ insecurity.
HR: There
is a relationship between respondents’ marital status and their opinion about electoral
violence/ insecurity.
HO: There
is no relationship between respondents’ age and their opinion about INEC
credibility/plan of action in the electoral (registration and voting) process.
HR: There
is a relationship between respondents’ age and their opinion about INEC
credibility/plan of action in the electoral (registration and voting) process.
HO: There
is no relationship between respondents’ occupation and their opinion about
non-fulfillment of electoral promises by political candidates/parties.
HR: There
is a relationship between respondents’ occupation and their opinion about
non-fulfillment of electoral promises by political candidates/parties.
HO: There
is no relationship between respondents’ educational level and their opinion
about voter education.
HR: There
is a relationship between respondents’ educational level and their opinion
about voter education.
HO: There
is no relationship between respondents’ sex and their opinion about long
hours/tedious registration and voting processes.
HR: There
is a relationship between respondents’ sex and their opinion about long
hours/tedious registration and voting processes.
1.5 SCOPE
AND LIMITATIONS OF STUDY
The scope of
this study was limited to the examination and analysis of the nature of voter
participatory behaviour in the electoral system covering the period of 1959
till date but with particular focus on 1999 to 2011.
A
major limitation to this study was the vastness of the Nigerian landscape,
which will be problematic in terms of coverage. Therefore the three senatorial
districts of Edo State served as the sampling frame from which data was
elicited from respondents.
Moreover,
the objective of the study was misconstrued by some of the respondents
(especially the illiterates) who saw it as a government initiative to identify
persons who do not participate in the electoral process for possible sanctions.
They were therefore, unwilling to fully cooperate with the researcher in terms
of supply of accurate information.
1.6 SIGNIFICANCE
OF THE STUDY
Voter
behaviour as a subset of political behaviour is specifically addressed,
identified and measured in the context of voter turnout, namely the incidence
and quantum of the exercise of the franchise. Low voter participation describes
that aspect of voter behaviour captured by non-voting in an election. It has emerged as a major problem in mature
and emerging democracies, settled and volatile societies, large and thriving
economies, as well as small and troubled ones, and among youth, women and other
marginalized groups as much as among mainstream dominant interests
(International IDEA 1999; 2002).
This
study provides a more scientific, empirically grounded and updated picture of voter
perception of voter participatory behaviour as it relates to declining turnout
in Nigeria, against a backdrop of global and historical experiences.
The
need for this study is based on the global realization of the vital role of
credible elections as the bedrock of democracy, democratization and good
governance. As noted by the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral
Assistance (1999; 2002), elections in democracies play the vital role of
ensuring representation of popular will. They help to secure the legitimacy of
the political system.
In addition, they are vital to political
socialization, the exercise of political influence, and serve as the foundation
for democratic stability and renewal (Dulani 2005; Lindberg 2006).
Moreover,
the findings from this study will help beam the search on the factors and
dynamics of voter participatory behaviour in the electoral process in Nigeria.
The findings will provide the basis for understanding the intricacies involved
in voter behaviour in the Nigeria polity.
Furthermore,
this study would suggest possible solutions to the problems of voters’ low
turnout during general elections
Finally,
it is the researcher’s expectations that the study will make good readership
piece for scholars, students and others who are interested in voter
participatory behaviour in the election process of Nigeria and will serve as a
basis for further research.
1.7 DEFINITION
OF BASIC TERMS
For purpose of
clarity, some of the concepts that are used in this research study are hereunder
defined.
Voter
A
voter is a person who has a right to participate in an election as an elector.
In Nigeria, a voter is a citizen who is 18 years old and above, and is duly
registered to elect political office holders. In effect anyone who can exercise
the right to vote is a voter.
Voting Behaviour
Voting is the
main form of political participation in liberal democratic societies and voting
or voter behaviour in the context of this work, is the attitude, perception,
action, of an eligible voter in voting/not voting and how and why such decision
was made.
Apathy
Political
apathy is the lack of psychological involvement in public affairs, emotional
detachment from civic obligations, and abstention from political activity. Political
apathy is evidenced in mass, collective behaviour but has its origin at the
level of the individual psyche. In the aggregate, political apathy is revealed
by attitudes and an absence of expected activity. When people cease to care
about political life, withdraw from obligations to civil society, and perform
entirely nominal or rote acts- or none at all- in political institutions or
organizations, apathy is indicated (Mason, Nelson and Szklarski (1991).
Voting Age Population
This is the
total number or percentage of eligible voters who are qualified to vote in an
election
Voter turnout
This is the total number or percentage
of eligible voters who cast ballots in an election.