CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
Background of the study
Historical demography is commonly defined as the application of
conventional and non-conventional demographic techniques to data sets
from the past (Pressat and Wilson 1985; Smith 2003). Its primary aim is
to obtain detailed demographic information and measure demographic
changes such as changes in population size, age structure, sex ratio,
fertility, mortality, and migration for populations in the past. While
estimating the total population in a particular historical setting can
be regarded as historical demography at its crudest level, the
application of demographic methods to historical source materials and
the information generated by such application can be far more
elaborate.
Historical demography is closely related to, but differs from,
demographic or population history. The former concentrates largely on
obtaining the detailed and accurate demographic information for
historical populations that provides the foundation for the study of
demographic or population history. The latter includes historical
demography as a field of enquiry, but covers wider research areas.
Demographic history investigates not only the process of past
population changes, but also the interrelationship between these
changes and a wide range of socio-economic, political, cultural and
environmental factors. In general, historical demography tends be more
involved in tackling the technical problems of measuring past
demographic changes and developing effective methods of analysing
historical population data, whereas demographic history is more
concerned with the reasons, processes and consequences of major
demographic events, especially their long-term impact on socio-economic
changes and historical development.
Population changes interact closely with, and play a major part
in, political, social and economic changes. Through offering detailed
and reliable demographic information about past societies, historical
demography can greatly improve our knowledge of history and population
history in particular. One of such examples is E. A. Wrigley and R. S.
Schofield’s monumental work The Population History of England
1541-1871 (1981). This study, based on extensive empirical evidence and
demographic estimates, systematically examines population trends in
England over a period of more three hundred years and the population
theory proposed by Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834). The comprehensive
analysis presented in this book provides great insights into
demographic patterns and their interplay with socio-economic conditions
in the time before and during the industrial revolution. The impact of
this work has been felt far beyond the disciplinary confines of
historical demography or population history.
While a distinction between historical demography and demographic
history can be and has been made by some scholars, it is difficult in
practice to draw a clear line between the two approaches and their
practitioners. Demographic historians often need to have detailed and
accurate demographic information as the foundation for their
investigation into population history. Equally, historical demographers
also want to examine socio-economic reasons for population changes and
the impact of such changes on the society. Because of the close
connection between the two disciplines, the discussion presented in
this chapter will not be confined within the area narrowly defined by
historical demography.
Historical demography is a major component of demography that
studies population changes, but it is primarily concerned with applying
demographic methods to population data from the past. Demographers
wishing to test a proposed hypothesis on contemporary population can, at
least theoretically, always collect the data they need according to
their research design. Historical demographers, however, have to use
existing data – they cannot go back in time to collect the required
data. The available data may not have been collected for the purpose of
demographic research; they may suffer from various types of
registration problems or biases that are often related to the rules or
procedures applied in creating the data. This makes historical
demographic research a more challenging task than the study of
contemporary population issues. For this reason, historical
demographers often need to develop new techniques or modify
conventional demographic methods so that they can be effectively used
in analysing surviving historical data – a point that will be further
discussed in section four of this chapter.
Historical demography has made a significant contribution to the
development of demography. Through enriching the knowledge about
demographic behaviour and population changes in the past, historical
demography helps us to gain a better understanding of demographic trends
in contemporary societies and future. Louis Henry (1911-1991), the
founding father of historical demography, once suggested that, to
answer the two questions about population changes that intrigued
demographers in the mid-twentieth century, “Where are we?” and “Where
are we headed?” we should begin by answering a third, “Where were we
yesterday and the day before?”. This reference to the past is, he said,
essential for it alone can tell us about the day after (Rosental 2003:
98). The importance of historical demography to the development of
demography does not stop here, however. After the Second World War,
there was a considerable increase in the interest in population issues
throughout the world, and demography as an academic discipline entered a
period of rapid development. Mortality and fertility, which had
decreased notably in the nineteenth century and the first half of the
twentieth century, fell to low levels in most developed countries.
These countries had well-established vital registration systems
and conducted regular censuses and population surveys. Population data
obtained through these modern-day efforts were, however, simply
insufficient for uncovering the process of demographic transition and
people’s demographic behaviour in the pre-transition society – both of
which were of overriding importance to the development of demographic
theories and the understanding of population changes of the time. Even
in countries where detailed mortality and fertility data had been
collected during the process of their demographic transition, those
available to researchers were usually limited to published census or
survey results. Public release of original census or vital registration
records was often prohibited for long periods after the records were
taken, whilst some countries destroyed the records altogether because of
privacy concerns. Such practices gave historical demography a unique
opportunity to fill important gaps in demographic research. As we shall
see, the investigation of population changes in the past has
contributed to the development of many important and widely used
population theories, analytical models and demographic techniques.
Statement of the problem
Demographic change is one of the key challenges today for urban
development together with globalization, knowledge/technological shift,
climate change and the development of the green economy, inclusiveness
and poverty. Strategic solutions cannot be based on addressing one of
these factors alone but must take into account the interplay of these
elements within a particular local area of development (urban or
rural). At the same time that there are important challenges to be
addressed, there are also opportunities to be fostered such as the
development of the “silver” economy of older entrepreneurs, the “white”
economy for medical services for the elderly population, or the natural
“green” advantage of shrinking areas. However, policy responses are
still fragmented and there is no articulation of a sustainable answer
to ensure and increase the quality of life in the light of these
changes.
1.3 Objectives of the study
1. To deduce the history of development and its impact on the demographic change of Lagos state.
1.4 Research questions
1. Does development impacts on the demographic change of Lagos state?
1.5 Research hypothesis
Ho: Development does not impact on the demographic change of Lagos state.
Hi:Development impacts on the demographic change of Lagos state
1.6 Significance of the study
Historical demography is an important component of demography. Its
aim is to obtain detailed information about population changes and
people’s demographic behaviour in the past through applying demographic
methods to historical data.
Historical demography has made a significant contribution to the
development of demography. Through enriching the knowledge about
demographic behaviour and population changes in the past, historical
demography helps us to gain a better understanding of demographic trends
in contemporary societies and future
1.7 Scope of the study
This research work is on the history of development and
demographic change in Lagos state. Lagos state is used as case study
due to representative nature of Lagos state to other developing states
in Nigeria and proximity to the researcher.
1.8 Limitations of the study
This study has some limitations most especially in the area of
data collection. Financial constraints as well as time available for
the completion of the study are among other factors that would limit
the scope of the study.
1.9 Definition of terms
Development: The act or process of growing or causing something to grow or become larger or more advanced.
Demography:The study of statistics such as births,
deaths, income, or the incidence of disease, which illustrate the
changing structure of human populations.
Change:An act or process through which something becomes different.
Lagos State: Is a state located in the southwestern geopolitical zone of Nigeria.