TO THE STUDY
Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa and the 8th
in the world with an estimated figure of about 170 million people based on the
facts released by the National Population Commission (NPC, 2012). In addition
to this, the nation boasts of being the largest economy in Africa as the GDP
figure for 2013 and 2014 stood at N13, 526.25 and N14, 475.38 billion
respectively (Economic Watch, 2015).
Despite these magnificent feats, the country is still faced with several
developmental, economic and political challenges such as unemployment, poverty,
corruption, income inequality, population explosion and political instability.
Nigeria has a
growing population, which can equally be referred to as increasing population.
The census conducted in Nigeria in 1991 put Nigeria’s population at 88.9
million people with growth rate of about 3% and the total fertility rate as
disclosed by the Post Enumeration Survey (PES) at about 6%. From the statistics
obtained at the 2006 Nigerian population census, Nigeria’s population stood at
140,003, 542 (NBS, 2009). The growth
rate then was less than 3% and the population has the tendency of doubling
itself in less than 23 years (Odusina 2013). The United Nations estimated
Nigeria’s population to be around 150,003, 400 and further corroborated that
Nigeria’s population is the largest in Africa and ranked 7th among
the populous countries globally (United Nations, 2009).
of Nigeria is rising rapidly. A rapid rise in population can be attributed to
three main factors which are birth rate, death rate and migration (Yesefu, 2002).
In the Nigeria population experience, migration has not contributed to rapid
population, because most of Nigeria’s technocrats, experts and professionals
immigrate to other countries for an improved means of livelihood (Odusina,
2013). If a rising population is brought about as a result of increase in birth
rate, there will be larger proportion of children and young people in the
population. On the other hand, if rapid population is a result of decrease in
death rate, the adults and older people will constitute a larger percentage of
the total population. Furthermore, if a rising population is due to high net
migration, the population will constitute a large proportion of the
economically active people, between the ages of 15 and 60 years. According to
National Demographic Health Survey (NDHS, 2003), crude birth rate in 1990, 1991
and 2003 stood at 39.0, 44.6 and 42.0. This evidences that Nigeria’s rapid
population is primarily as a result of high birth rate.
of Nigeria has gathered momentum over time. Population will continually
increase event if there is usage and practice of contraceptives, family
planning system and birth control. Increasing population is a burden to the
government especially in less developed countries, which is considered
injurious to the citizenry living standard and the socioeconomic development of
Unemployment occurs as a result of the insufficiency of jobs
to commensurate with the growing population, even those who are employed live
with the fear of being rendered unemployed due to job insecurity, economic
recession and retrenchment of workers. (Akiri etal. 2016). The term
‘unemployment’ can be applied to any factor of production that is idle and
under-utilized. With precise application to labour, unemployment occurs when
active and able-bodied men are actively seeking jobs but unable to find one.
Underemployment is a variant of unemployment which arises when labour is
working below full capacity or not fully utilized in production.
Unemployment has been a hindering
factor to the attainment of sustainable development. In Nigeria, unemployment
is more prevalent among the youths. Every year, tertiary institutions turn out
thousands of graduates in large mass with no absorptive capacity in the labour
market. Moreover, young people are more likely to be employed in jobs of low
quality, poor working conditions, poor remuneration and engagement in dangerous
works or receive a short term informal employment arrangements. Unemployment
has been regarded as global economic problem and has been tagged as a barricade
to social and economic advancement especially in developing nations, Nigeria
inclusive. Unemployment tantamount to huge wastage of a country’s human
resources, generates welfare loss in terms of social output, leads to low
income and increases the cost of living ( Umo, 1999).
The inadequate employment situation of youths has resulted
into a number of socio-economic, moral and political vices such as armed
robbery, thuggery, vandalisation of government assets, corruption,
prostitution, rural-urban migration, high dependency ratio, frustration,
corruption, depression, wastage and underutilization of human resource. The
prevalence of unemployment has birthed the presence of poverty in the nation.
Successive government has employed several strategies to curb both challenges,
but the results achieved so far have not been remarkable.
STATEMENT OF PROBLEM
Nigeria is bedeviled with a dual-problem of high population
and high unemployment. The jobs available in the labour market are not
commensurate with the teeming number of unemployed persons. Rapid population
growth is inimical to the economic and social development of a country. There
will be little time or no time to adjust the economy to development efforts.
Increasing population has the tendency of eroding the benefits of economic
development and producing disastrous effects on living conditions of the
citizenry if not properly checked.
Nigeria population requires urgent attention, regulation and
control due to its excessive growth rate. Nigeria need to learn from the
Chinese population experience, when the latter country encountered many
challenges linked to population growth. A large number of people lived in poverty;
they were unable to deal with the aftermath of flood and drought. This occurred
because the Chinese government never made any strategic plan to avert the ugly incident
(Clunas, etal., 2008).
The population situation of Nigeria and issues related to it
needs to be discussed to expose many population-related factors to the
consciousness of the people. For instance, Nigeria is suffering from high rates
of poverty and unemployment. Moreover, there is mass migration of people from
rural areas to urban areas, thereby creating social vices. This is because the
available industries are unable to employ all the participants in the labour
For Nigeria to overcome these developmental challenges,
effective policies need to be formulated to raise domestic production of food,
create jobs; reduce absolute poverty, lower population growth amongst many
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The objectives of the study are:
To examine the impact of population growth on unemployment
To ascertain if there is long-run equilibrium relationship
between population growth and unemployment in Nigeria.
1.4 RESEARCH QUESTIONS
The study is targeted to providing
satisfactory answers to the following research questions:
What is the impact of population growth on unemployment in
Is there long-run equilibrium relationship between
population growth and unemployment in Nigeria?
A hypothesis is
a supposed or proposed statement made on the premise of limited evidence, which
serves as a starting point for further investigation. In accordance with the
objectives of the study, the hypotheses are hereby stated as follows
Population growth has no significant impact on unemployment in Nigeria.
2. H02: There is no significant long-run equilibrium
relationship between population growth and unemployment in Nigeria.
METHOD OF ANALYSIS
Secondary annual-time series data on
population growth and unemployment is used for the empirical analysis. A model
is formulated in which unemployment (proxy as unemployment rate) is employed as
the explained variable while population growth (proxied by population growth
rate and total population) are adopted as the explanatory variable. Per capita
income and GDP growth rate were also incorporated as explanatory variables in
The ordinary least square technique (OLS) via the simple
regression analysis is used to estimate the numerical values of the parameter
estimates. The OLS technique was picked due to the optimal properties it
possesses such as linearity, unbiasedness, efficiency, consistency and
sufficiency. Furthermore, the OLS technique was used because it is
computational procedure is quite easy and is widely used in estimating
coefficients of economic relationship in economic researches. Furthermore, the
econometric techniques of Augmented-Dickey Fuller Test, Johansen Cointegration
Test and Granger Causality Test will be employed.
1.7 JUSTIFICATION FOR THE STUDY
It is no
gainsaying to assert that the Nigerian economy is in a state of mess. Despite
the enormous mineral, natural and human resources available in the country,
Nigeria has been unable to mobilize these resources to meet the needs of its
teeming population. High population growth that ought to be an ‘asset’ to the
nation in her quest for economic development, has rather turned to a liability,
because no strategic and sound measures
has been put in place to ensure high population growth is proportional to the
jobs available. To this end, as a result of salvaging the economy from the
mirage of high incidences of population growth and unemployment has
necessitated the need for this study.
It is therefore
believed that the study through its findings and policy recommendations would
be useful to policy makers, government agencies, stakeholder in polity and
future researchers on how population growth can be regulated and unemployment
reduced to be barest minimum.
OF THE STUDY
examines the impact of population growth and unemployment in Nigeria by
prioritizing on a thirty-year period spanning from 1985-2015. This time frame
is picked in order to examine the recent trend in unemployment and population
growth in Nigeria.
ORGANISATION OF THE STUDY
This study is
sectionalized into five chapters.
contains the general introduction-background to the study, statement of
problem, research objectives, questions and hypothesis that guides the study.
presents the review of related literature based on conceptual review,
theoretical review and empirical review.
delves into the structural composition of the study by focusing on trend in
population growth in Nigeria, trend in unemployment in Nigeria, factors
responsible for high population growth and unemployment in Nigeria, past
measures formulated to regulate population in Nigeria and implications of a
rapidly growing Nigeria population.
presents the research methodology and empirical analysis and the last chapter
focuses on the summary of findings, conclusion, policy recommendations and
suggestions for further studies.